A shift to Asia won’t solve Russia’s economic woes

Russian President Vladimir Putin sought this month to contrast the vibrant economies of Asia with the decadence of the West, signalling that Russia’s future lay with the East.

The economic and political dominance of the United States was waning, he told an economic forum in Vladivostok, and the Western elites were blind to the ‘irreversible, or should I say tectonic shifts’ in international relations as emerging nations, led by the Asia–Pacific, played a much bigger role.

‘Asia–Pacific countries emerged as new centres of economic and technological growth, attracting human resources, capital and manufacturing.’

He cited International Monetary Fund estimates showing that Asia’s share of the world economy would rise from the 37% it held in 2015 to 47% by 2027.

He contrasted the Asia–Pacific’s average growth over the past decade of 5% with the United States’ growth of 2% and the European Union’s 1.2%.

He didn’t mention Russia’s average growth of 0.9% over that period, or the IMF’s forecast that the country’s share of the global economy will shrink from a high of 3.5% in 2013 to 2.3% by 2027.

While Russia straddles both the east and the west of the Eurasian landmass, 80% of its population and nearly all its manufacturing lie west of the Urals in the European zone.

Figures from 2020 show that Europe accounted for 50% of Russia’s imports and 50% of its exports, while the Asian share was 42% for trade in both directions. Collectively, those…